By Chris Moss
A couple of minutes thinking about food security. It’s late 2025 and in the US the number one concern of people is not immigration or climate change, it’s the price of food.
Halfway through the 20th century the “green revolution” ushered in the massive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides into the production of food. The results showed a temporary huge increase in production and incredible profits for the companies pushing chemicals. But a large amount of the success was actually based on post WW2 use of improved wells and drilling into underground aquifers. Vast amounts of new land became available to farmers in the US Midwest, which were formally dryland farms relying solely on rainfall. Global trading expanded, and new foods were introduced to our diet. This greater variety and amount of food choices, over time, became an expected right and a reason to believe that we had increased our food security. Now, here we are seventy years later facing some very difficult situations.
Water for farming is becoming scarce. We have systematically pumped out aquifers to support agriculture around the world. These aquifers may have been tens of thousands of years in the making, and we are draining them. Even the relatively new aquifers in the US Midwest are in the range of ten to fourteen thousand years old. So if we have drained them in seventy years, it will take ten thousand years of not using them to refill them. Some aquifers, like those in California, have geologic structures that collapsed after being drained; those aquifers will NEVER refill again. If all the water pumped out for our California strawberries and almonds were suddenly returned, you would have a large inland lake stretching from Red Bluff to Bakersfield, about a third of the state.
When we buy produce from other countries we are using their water, increasing their shortages and droughts, for our use. We don’t worry about our own use of water and don’t think about the effects on their water resources. But those blueberries we get from Chili are very much part of our own water footprint, and this situation will not last forever. Saudi Arabia is almost out of water so they (because they have the money) have bought up large amounts US farmland to plant wheat and then ship back to their country. This uses the pumped water from US aquifers so that none of that irreplaceable water can be used in the US for domestic food. The US says it has closed the operation down but refuses to realize that the US, and Canada for that matter, does the same thing in other countries.
Less water overseas means less produce imported and higher costs to meet the demand for that produce. So capitalists will still make profits, but only the very rich will be able to afford the climbing prices. It doesn’t matter if subsidies are available for farmers if there is no water to irrigate or water for animals to drink. Less product means higher prices to everyone. When the water runs out, it means NO product. In the future, we can expect food prices to continue to rise while at the same time we will see many of the items that stock our grocery shelves disappear as the price point reaches the level that no one can afford to buy chocolate, almonds, pineapples, oranges, bananas, and many other international goods that are currently imported. That may seem harsh for us, but what have we done to the water supply in those other countries just to feed our belief that there is no food scarcity?
A four-ounce serving of chocolate requires 1953 liters (516US Gal) of water to produce. A 4-ounce serving of almonds requires 1828 liters (483 US gal) to grow. Are you adding that into your water footprint when you eat a chocolate almond bar? It’s staggering to see the amount of water we use for these products that has to come out of a country’s water supply budget. You begin to see that as water scarcities increase, we can expect to see some products either disappear or become too expensive to afford. Your cup of coffee or tea uses much more than a cup of water. See how much water is needed to provide your food with this Water Footprint Calculator.